Russia's Oil and Gas Revenue Decline in April 2025

Russia's Oil and Gas Revenue Decline in April 2025: Economic Implications

Russia's Oil and Gas Revenue Decline in April 2025

In April 2025, Russia's oil and gas revenues experienced a significant decline of approximately 12% year-on-year, totaling 1.09 trillion rubles ($13.49 billion), down from 1.23 trillion rubles in April 2024. This decrease is attributed to a sharp drop in oil prices, averaging 4,562 rubles per barrel, which is over 40% lower than the budgeted level of 6,726 rubles per barrel. The decline has raised concerns about Russia's financial stability and its ability to fund ongoing military operations in Ukraine.

The Russian government has responded by revising its 2025 budget deficit forecast from 0.5% to 1.7% of GDP. Additionally, the finance ministry plans to tap into the National Wealth Fund, withdrawing 447 billion rubles (approximately $5.51 billion) to balance the budget. Despite these measures, analysts warn that sustained low oil prices could necessitate further fiscal adjustments, including potential tax increases or spending cuts.

The impact of these developments extends beyond Russia's borders. The TurkStream gas pipeline, which continues to export Russian gas to Europe, complicates the European Union's efforts to reduce reliance on Russian energy sources. In the first quarter of 2025, exports through TurkStream increased by 16% year-on-year, with Hungary and Slovakia being significant importers. This situation underscores the challenges faced by the EU in achieving energy independence amid geopolitical tensions.

Source: Reuters